Polk Examines Consumer Reaction to Increased Gas Prices
24 April 2000
Third Report in a Series From the New York International Auto Show Floor
NEW YORK, April 24 The Polk Company today released the
third in a series of trend reports direct from the New York International Auto
Show (NYIAS) floor at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center.
This report details the survey responses Polk captured at NYIAS 2000
during the first weekend the show was open to the public (April 22-23). It
also provides a sampling of additional questions being asked at the Polk Auto
Trend Centers, along with a Top 5 listing of favorites from the show displays.
The Polk Auto Trend Centers will be used to collect NYIAS attendee opinions
throughout the 2000 show and reports will be issued on a regular basis,
providing more in-depth analysis as the show progresses.
Polk is a global company, delivering multi-dimensional marketing
information solutions to the automotive industry to enhance the relationships
consumers have with brands. Through lifetime understanding of individuals,
Polk helps its clients maintain current customers, win new ones and build
their brand loyalty. The company has served the automotive industry for
78 years and is the longest-standing steward of automobile records in the
United States. Founded in Detroit in 1870, Polk launched its motor vehicle
statistical operations in 1922 when the first car registration reports were
published. It now serves nearly every segment of the motor vehicle industry
as an analytical consultant and statistician, a provider of database-marketing
services, a supplier of vehicle histories and a data enabler for geographic
information systems. Based in Southfield, Mich., Polk is a privately held
firm that employs more than 2,500 people worldwide, currently operating in
Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Holland, Spain, the United Kingdom
and the United States.
Increased Desire for More Fuel Efficient Vehicles
A great deal of attention is being given to alternate fuel and hybrid
vehicles at NYIAS 2000, as most major manufacturers are displaying current and
concept vehicles designed to operate with greater efficiency. The question
remains: Will consumers gravitate toward these vehicles, particularly if it
requires sacrifices in space, convenience, or power?
According to results from Polk's Auto Trend Centers, more than half (54%)
of consumers at NYIAS 2000 plan to look for a more efficient vehicle for their
next vehicle purchase, a possible reflection on recently escalating gasoline
prices. This sentiment runs highest among females and consumers who live or
work in NYC or are visiting from out-of-town:
Do You Plan to Buy a More Fuel Efficient Vehicle?
Yes No
Overall 54% 46%
Males 52% 48%
Females 61% 39%
NYC residents 57% 43%
Tri-State area 50% 50%
Out-of-town 61% 39%
To date, the increase in fuel costs has had little effect on the strong
light truck market, where most of the lower mileage vehicles reside. Sales
remain strong for even the Fullsize SUV segment, where many of the competitors
average less than 15 miles per gallon.
While considerable attention has been paid to improving fuel economy, an
analysis of government statistics reveals that little has changed over the
last two decades, as illustrated in the following table:
1980 1990 2000
Average MPG 21.1 21.1 21.5
Although mileage on many models has improved over the last two decades,
the recent shift toward light trucks has all but negated any gains in overall
mileage numbers. In 1980, 41% of vehicles averaged more than 21 miles per
gallon; in 2000, that figure has moved to 46%. If consumers are voting with
their dollars, fuel economy has not been an important issue to this point.
Whether a continued rise in cost of ownership, driven by higher gasoline
prices, will alter consumer preferences is unclear. Prior increases at the
gas pump coincided with less robust economic conditions. With current
consumer wealth riding at unprecedented levels, gas prices may have little
effect in the short-term.
Nonetheless, based on increased visibility and awareness of the gas price
and environmental issues, automakers are stepping up efforts to develop
alternative fuel vehicles. Time will tell whether they succeed in the
increasingly competitive automotive marketplace.
Small Car Preferences
In addition to a higher preference for a more fuel-efficient vehicle,
female visitors to NYIAS 2000 are also more likely than males to indicate that
they are shopping for a small car:
Considering a Small Car for Next New Vehicle
Females 14%
Males 9%
Males and females also differ in their reactions to offerings in the Small
Car segment. While both are most likely to choose the Volkswagen Beetle as
their favorite, Ford's Focus has greater appeal to females, while VW also
captures the second spot among male consumers at the auto show with their
Golf.
Top 3 Vehicle Favorites - Small Car Segment
Females: Males:
Volkswagen New Beetle 22% Volkswagen New Beetle 23%
Ford Focus 12% Volkswagen Golf 12%
Honda Civic 9% Honda Civic 12%
April 22-23, 2000
*Top 5 leaders based on voting at the Polk Auto Trend Centers
Concept Vehicle: Minivan/Full-size Van:
1. BMW Z9 16% 1. Chrysler PT Cruiser 15%
2. Dodge Viper Concept 10% 2. Mazda MPV 12%
3. Jaguar F-Type Concept 9% 3. Mercury Villager 11%
4. Chrysler 300 Hemi 7% 4. Dodge Caravan 8%
Hummer H2 7% Volkswagen Eurovan 8%
Exhibit: Pickup Truck:
1. BMW 12% 1. Toyota Tundra 19%
2. Jaguar 8% 2. Ford F-Series 15%
3. Hummer 7% 3. Toyota Tacoma 13%
4. Mercedes-Benz 6% 4. Dodge Ram Pickup Truck 11%
Porche 6% 5. Nissan Frontier 7%
Sports Car: Prestige Luxury Car:
1. Dodge Viper 11% 1. Mercedes-Benz S-Class 17%
2. Chevrolet Camaro 10% 2. Jaguar XJR 11%
3. Porsche 911 9% 3. Rolls Royce Silver Seraph 9%
4. BMW M5 7% 4. BMW 540 8%
5. Audi TT 4% BMW 7 Series 8%
Luxury Car: SUV:
1. Lincoln LS 11% 1. Hummer 11%
2. Jaguar S TYPE 8% 2. BMW X5 8%
Lexus GS400 8% 3. Lincoln Navigator 7%
4. Mercedes-Benz CLK 7% 4. Lexus RX 300 5%
BMW 528 7% Mercedes-Benz M-Class 5%
Midsize Car: Small Car:
1. Volkswagen Passat 11% 1. Volkswagen New Beetle 22%
2. Volkswagen Jetta 9% 2. Honda Civic 12%
Honda Accord 9% 3. Ford Focus 10%
4. Acura Integra 6% 4. Volkswagen Golf 9%
Volvo S40 6% 5. Saturn SL 6%